Every draft choice is a question mark. For every Tim Duncan there's a Greg Oden. This isn't a slight to the teams that have the misfortune of investing a high draft pick on a bust, but more of an acknowledgement of the volatility of draft picks. The NBA Draft isn't simply about ranking the best college basketball players and picking according to that rank, but about projecting what 19 and 20 year olds will be able to do against the greatest athletes in the world when they mature a few years down the line, mentally and physically. This is an impossible task of course, especially when you consider that there is a finite amount of information available to the decision makers of the 30 NBA franchises, and so many unknowns, like future injury or maturity issues down the line, to name a few.
Gar Forman and John Paxson have been fairly successful at this process, famously using their #1 draft pick to nab Derrick Rose ahead of Marcus Beasley, but even more importantly they've been able to find important contributors without needing a number 1 pick. Reigning Defensive Player of the Year Joakim Noah was the 9th overall pick. Major contributors Taj Gibson and Jimmy Butler were drafted 26th and 30th, respectively.
The situation is especially dire for the Bulls this time around though; with Joakim Noah and Derrick Rose getting older, this is a team that needs to gather the pieces necessary to win as soon as possible. So with free agency (and an attempt to acquire Carmelo Anthony) looming, the Bulls needed to figure out what to do with the 16th and 19th pick in a loaded draft. It's no secret that the defensive-minded Bulls desperately need to add shooting, and keeping in mind that they're trying to clear cap space for Carmelo Anthony it was rumored that Chicago was trying to consolidate those two picks (and save money) by trading up for a higher pick that would allow them to acquire a knockdown shooter. The names that kept coming up were Canadian Nick Stauskas and Creighton star Doug McDermott.
For once a draft rumor seemed to actually play out exactly as expected, or so it seemed. Chicago traded the 16th and 19th pick to Denver to move up to the 11th pick and the rights to Doug McDermott. But for some reason, that wasn't the end of it. The Bulls also included next year's second year pick AND took on Anthony Randolph and his contract. Unfortunately this negates the value of consolidating picks; the Bulls only save about $300k in cap space after trading the valuable 16th and 19th picks, and by taking on Anthony Randolph in the deal they have even less cap space, which translates to less money they can offer Carmelo. Dumping Randolph's contract to create more room for Melo is difficult as well, as he can only be traded in 1 for 1 deals (i.e. not in a sign and trade with the Knicks).
So I suppose it's fair to go on about how GarPax didn't get nearly the amount of value they should have out of the 16th and 19th picks. Some have argued that they basically used those two picks to replace Mike Dunleavy Jr. (a sharp-shooting SF who may be traded to clear more cap space for Carmelo). Those are fair arguments, however I think it's more important that the Bulls think less about value and more about getting the right players.
Yes, the NBA Draft is volatile, and not every high pick is guaranteed to be a solid NBA player. The trick is to find the right guys among a minefield of busts, like Taj Gibson and Jimmy Butler for example. Bill Simmons at Grantland investigated what would have happened if the last 19 drafts were done knowing what we know now here. It's an entertaining read; an opportunity to take a stroll down draft bust memory lane (and also a chance to wonder what it would be like to get paid to invest hours redrafting the last 19 drafts, but I digress). The obvious lesson gleaned from the article is that only a few players from each draft will have productive NBA careers. These players don't have to be top 5 picks, rather, they can be found at any point in the draft. The catch is that general managers have to select the right guys. The "value" of the 16th and 19th pick is irrelevant once the draft is complete, the only thing to worry about is whether or not your team got a guy who can have a productive career. GarPax gave up quite a bit for McDermott because they're more confident in what he can do for the Bulls than the lottery tickets that the later first round (and next year's second round) picks represented to them. And it's hard to blame them.
Doug McDermott can shoot. The Bulls need shooting. I realize that highly entertaining video is edited, but McDermott scored the 5th most points in college basketball history. To do this he obviously wasn't just hitting the 3 ball, he has serious post skills and is a willing passer which will make him a matchup nightmare, especially if he's coming off the bench and dominating other team's 2nd units (which will likely be the plan if Carmelo decides to come to Chicago). McDermott was a coach's son and seems to be an all around good guy, which plays into the Bulls consistent desire for high character players. Scoff at that concept if you want, but having a tight locker room isn't overrated (see last year's Pacers team). He was also a 4 year player which gave him time to develop his game. This means he'll be more ready to contribute immediately than some of the younger players who scouts say might have more promise a few years down the road.
McDermott is not going to be on the All Defensive team, but his defensive shortcomings have been blown way out of proportion; honestly Bulls fans shouldn't be worrying about it with rim protectors Noah and Gibson being able to erase a lot of mistakes McDermott might make, not to mention Thibs' ability to teach defensive technique and scheme his defense around his personnel. Tom Thibodeau has worked with McDermott before, and if Doug was going to be too much of a defensive liability the Bulls would certainly not be giving up as much as they did for him.
I realize this take is a lot more optimistic than most, I just think it's evident that Doug McDermott is a perfect fit for a team starved for scoring; he'll be able to stretch the floor and create more lanes and opportunities for Derrick Rose (and obviously the attention that Rose draws will give McDermott a lot of open looks). Obviously losing a bit of cap space for Melo is a drag, but the Bulls weren't going to be able to offer Anthony a max contract anyways, and the team is clearly stronger with McDermott; if Carmelo truly wants to win it's abundantly clear that Chicago is his best option. I'm not as concerned with the fact that the Bulls gave up a couple of picks for McDermott; if Doug can be a major contributor on a team with championship aspirations, nobody is going to talk about a a few late round picks.
