Every draft choice is a question mark. For every Tim Duncan there's a Greg Oden. This isn't a slight to the teams that have the misfortune of investing a high draft pick on a bust, but more of an acknowledgement of the volatility of draft picks. The NBA Draft isn't simply about ranking the best college basketball players and picking according to that rank, but about projecting what 19 and 20 year olds will be able to do against the greatest athletes in the world when they mature a few years down the line, mentally and physically. This is an impossible task of course, especially when you consider that there is a finite amount of information available to the decision makers of the 30 NBA franchises, and so many unknowns, like future injury or maturity issues down the line, to name a few.
Gar Forman and John Paxson have been fairly successful at this process, famously using their #1 draft pick to nab Derrick Rose ahead of Marcus Beasley, but even more importantly they've been able to find important contributors without needing a number 1 pick. Reigning Defensive Player of the Year Joakim Noah was the 9th overall pick. Major contributors Taj Gibson and Jimmy Butler were drafted 26th and 30th, respectively.
The situation is especially dire for the Bulls this time around though; with Joakim Noah and Derrick Rose getting older, this is a team that needs to gather the pieces necessary to win as soon as possible. So with free agency (and an attempt to acquire Carmelo Anthony) looming, the Bulls needed to figure out what to do with the 16th and 19th pick in a loaded draft. It's no secret that the defensive-minded Bulls desperately need to add shooting, and keeping in mind that they're trying to clear cap space for Carmelo Anthony it was rumored that Chicago was trying to consolidate those two picks (and save money) by trading up for a higher pick that would allow them to acquire a knockdown shooter. The names that kept coming up were Canadian Nick Stauskas and Creighton star Doug McDermott.
For once a draft rumor seemed to actually play out exactly as expected, or so it seemed. Chicago traded the 16th and 19th pick to Denver to move up to the 11th pick and the rights to Doug McDermott. But for some reason, that wasn't the end of it. The Bulls also included next year's second year pick AND took on Anthony Randolph and his contract. Unfortunately this negates the value of consolidating picks; the Bulls only save about $300k in cap space after trading the valuable 16th and 19th picks, and by taking on Anthony Randolph in the deal they have even less cap space, which translates to less money they can offer Carmelo. Dumping Randolph's contract to create more room for Melo is difficult as well, as he can only be traded in 1 for 1 deals (i.e. not in a sign and trade with the Knicks).
So I suppose it's fair to go on about how GarPax didn't get nearly the amount of value they should have out of the 16th and 19th picks. Some have argued that they basically used those two picks to replace Mike Dunleavy Jr. (a sharp-shooting SF who may be traded to clear more cap space for Carmelo). Those are fair arguments, however I think it's more important that the Bulls think less about value and more about getting the right players.
Yes, the NBA Draft is volatile, and not every high pick is guaranteed to be a solid NBA player. The trick is to find the right guys among a minefield of busts, like Taj Gibson and Jimmy Butler for example. Bill Simmons at Grantland investigated what would have happened if the last 19 drafts were done knowing what we know now here. It's an entertaining read; an opportunity to take a stroll down draft bust memory lane (and also a chance to wonder what it would be like to get paid to invest hours redrafting the last 19 drafts, but I digress). The obvious lesson gleaned from the article is that only a few players from each draft will have productive NBA careers. These players don't have to be top 5 picks, rather, they can be found at any point in the draft. The catch is that general managers have to select the right guys. The "value" of the 16th and 19th pick is irrelevant once the draft is complete, the only thing to worry about is whether or not your team got a guy who can have a productive career. GarPax gave up quite a bit for McDermott because they're more confident in what he can do for the Bulls than the lottery tickets that the later first round (and next year's second round) picks represented to them. And it's hard to blame them.
Doug McDermott can shoot. The Bulls need shooting. I realize that highly entertaining video is edited, but McDermott scored the 5th most points in college basketball history. To do this he obviously wasn't just hitting the 3 ball, he has serious post skills and is a willing passer which will make him a matchup nightmare, especially if he's coming off the bench and dominating other team's 2nd units (which will likely be the plan if Carmelo decides to come to Chicago). McDermott was a coach's son and seems to be an all around good guy, which plays into the Bulls consistent desire for high character players. Scoff at that concept if you want, but having a tight locker room isn't overrated (see last year's Pacers team). He was also a 4 year player which gave him time to develop his game. This means he'll be more ready to contribute immediately than some of the younger players who scouts say might have more promise a few years down the road.
McDermott is not going to be on the All Defensive team, but his defensive shortcomings have been blown way out of proportion; honestly Bulls fans shouldn't be worrying about it with rim protectors Noah and Gibson being able to erase a lot of mistakes McDermott might make, not to mention Thibs' ability to teach defensive technique and scheme his defense around his personnel. Tom Thibodeau has worked with McDermott before, and if Doug was going to be too much of a defensive liability the Bulls would certainly not be giving up as much as they did for him.
I realize this take is a lot more optimistic than most, I just think it's evident that Doug McDermott is a perfect fit for a team starved for scoring; he'll be able to stretch the floor and create more lanes and opportunities for Derrick Rose (and obviously the attention that Rose draws will give McDermott a lot of open looks). Obviously losing a bit of cap space for Melo is a drag, but the Bulls weren't going to be able to offer Anthony a max contract anyways, and the team is clearly stronger with McDermott; if Carmelo truly wants to win it's abundantly clear that Chicago is his best option. I'm not as concerned with the fact that the Bulls gave up a couple of picks for McDermott; if Doug can be a major contributor on a team with championship aspirations, nobody is going to talk about a a few late round picks.
Tuesday, July 1, 2014
Monday, June 23, 2014
Taking Inventory
My most recent post? July 23rd, 2012. Almost two years ago. The post before that was entitled "Why Rip Hamilton Gets Me Excited for the 2011-2012 Bulls." While I'm still trying to decide if it's more disappointing that I haven't posted for 2 years or that there was a moment that I was excited about Rip Hamilton being a member of the Chicago basketball team, I am certain that a lot has happened in these last two years in the world of sports. The Blackhawks won another Stanley Cup in 2013 with a fairly impressive 17 second stretch, Derrick Rose's knees did their best Glass Joe impression twice, Chicago baseball continued to underwhelm, and the Bears gained a new coach while saying goodbye to one of their franchise's greatest players in Brian Urlacher. Oh, and Bartolo Colon even got a hit!
I'd like to get back to using this venue to share my thoughts and opinions about the happenings in the sports world in a more consistent manner, and to do that I think it's best to asses where the major Chicago teams are at right now. Let's start with the teams that are currently playing actual games:
The Chicago White Sox
I am always guilty of being overly optimistic about my favorite team in all of sports. At the beginning of the year I kept trying to remind myself that with the extra wild card team, a weak AL Central division with Detroit's key contributors like Cabrera and Verlander getting older, that the Sox could potentially sneak into the playoffs. I'm happy to report that generally the performance of the southsiders has helped me maintain my optimism: Chris Sale continues to be a leading Cy Young candidate, Jose Abreu has crushed all expectations (along with several poorly located pitches) with his prolific all-fields power stroke, Adam Eaton has been a welcome addition as a catalyst at the top of the order, and Alexei Ramirez and Gordon Beckham have shown significant improvements at the plate so far this year.
Of course Sale, Abreu, and Eaton have already spent time on the DL, the bullpen was awful to start the year, the Erik Johnson experiment did not work, which has led to far too many starts from the likes of Andre Rienzo, Scott Carroll, and Hector Noesi, not to mention that Danks has mixed in a couple of solid starts with some significant implosions. This team will likely hover around .500 all year, which means they won't be too far out of a playoff spot, but it's unrealistic to think they can overcome Det, KC, Cle in their own division, to to mention Anaheim and a number of teams in the AL East competing for Wild Card spots.
The good news is that GM Rick Hahn has shown that he can bring in good young talent in Abreu and Eaton, not to mention Avisail Garcia coming back next year when he gets healthy, new #3 overall draft choice Carlos Rodon, and more prospects in the minors than Sox fans are used to. Lots of holes can be filled through free agency as well when Adam Dunn's massive contract is off the books at the end of this year. There is a lot to be excited about when considering the future of the White Sox, although it's probably best for my own sanity to not get too excited this year.
The Cubbies
The Cubs have a ton of young talent and should be ready to compete in a few years. So what if that last sentence could have been copied and pasted from any number of years when describing the Cubs, this time it's true damnit!
Gratuitous Cubs vibing aside, Wrigleyville should be excited that Rizzo has seemed to figure out left-handed pitching this year (slashing a robust .328/.432/.582 this year against lefties versus .189/.282/.342 last year), and the fact that Kris Bryant's dominance of the high minors might force a call up before the Cubs can avoid his Super 2 status (giving the Cubs an extra year of control over Bryant before he hits arbitration) is a good problem to have, especially since the Cubs shouldn't have to worry about operating like a small market team.
The list of exciting Cubs prospects is endless, but the issue will be if Theo and Jed can cobble together a pitching staff when the time is right. The plan is supposed to be to sign impact free agents (likely pitchers) to pair with the elite prospects when the young'uns are ready to perform on the big stage. This is easier said than done, and the plan is also reliant on the development of young prospects. If I'm a Cubs fan, I'm certainly more in a "show me" state of mind rather than just blindly believing that the Cubs will be WS contenders in 2016.
The Hawks
What a great team. The core of Toews, Kane, Hossa, Keith, and Sharp are locked up, which means this team will be a Stanley Cup contender for a long time, which is very exciting. Every team dreams of having a fairly young core locked up for a while so their window of competing for the Cup stays open for an extended period of time, and the Hawks have exactly that.
Many fans have talked about how the Hawks getting bounced by the LA Kings in Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals was one of their most devastating moments as a sports fan. Sorry, but I don't see it. The Kings were a great hockey team, and it was evident to anyone watching that the Western Conference Finals was the de-facto Stanley Cup Finals. These were clearly the two best teams in the league. So Hawks fans were treated to brilliant hockey on both sides for 7 games, and it's ok to tip your cap to a great team. If this series were played 100 times the Hawks probably would have won it about 45 times. Sure it hurts to be on the losing side, but the bottom line is that the Hawks have won 2 cups in the last 4 years even after losing this one. It reminds me of the clashes between Magic Johnson's Lakers versus Larry Legend's Celtics. Both great teams, but somebody was gonna lose. I think Hawks fans should hold up their heads high and be proud of the fact that their team contributed to some of the greatest Stanley Cup games ever played. And let's get it next year.
Da Bears
It's about time they figured it out. Success in the modern-day NFL is predicated on two important factors:
1) Can your offense throw the ball in key situations?
2) Can your defense disrupt the other team's passing game?
Long gone are the days when teams would run the ball and play tough defense; the rules won't allow for tough defense anymore and it's easier to pick up large chunks of yardage through the air than on the ground. Lovie Smith was a fantastic defensive coach. The Bears had a great defense. It didn't matter. The Bears couldn't keep score with the high-paced offenses that were still able to put up points against the Bears staunch defense, and the defensive-minded team was in a lot of trouble anytime they were playing from a deficit.
Phil Emery has finally put the focus in the right spots, bringing in an offensive minded coach in Mark Trestman, providing Cutler with a lot of playmakers who can catch the ball (Marshall, Jeffery, Forte, Bennett), and pass protection, revamping the offensive line last offseason. This year, Emery revamped their defensive line and drafted a cornerback with their first pick, giving the Bears 3 solid corners. It's clear they're preparing to face teams like Green Bay and Detroit; they want to pressure their elite QBs while trying to lock down on the weapons those types of teams possess. It's the right approach, and I'm confident it will lead to a playoff appearance this year (hopefully this isn't like my Rip Hamilton optimism).
The Chicago Bulls
Even though the NBA season just ended, right now the Bulls are the most interesting they've been since Derrick's knee gave out on him again 10 games into this past season. The decisions the Bulls will be making will probably be discussed in more detail in a future post, but the cliff notes are as follows: GMs Gar Forman and John Paxon have been stressing that they want flexibility with their players and their contracts so that they can have a lot of options on how to construct their team moving forward. All of the flexibility has led to the accumulation of these assets:
-The Bulls have the #16 and #19 picks in a loaded 2014 draft
-Bulls draft pick Nikola Mirotic is dominating play in Europe and could come over to play with the Bulls as a stretch 4 if his buyout and NBA contract are agreed upon (or he could be traded)
-They have a future Kings pick and the ability to swap places with Cleveland's pick down the line
All of these assets are important because both Kevin Love and Carmelo Anthony are available (Love via trade, Carmelo is a FA but could be had in a sign and trade with the Knicks). SG Aaron Afflalo from Orlando is also a potential trade target for the Bulls to pair with DRose in the backcourt. GarPax needs to figure out how they can use these assets to construct the best team possible. Do they think they'll be best served by dealing a lot of assets for Kevin Love, dumping a lot of salary for Carmelo Anthony, or consolidating their 2 1st round picks into a higher pick for a more elite shooter and then bringing over Mirotic. It looks like the Bulls are focused on trying to acquire Carmelo Anthony, but it will be fascinating to see how this team looks next year, especially since they could certainly be the Paper Champions with the best looking roster going into the beginning of next year if they can make a starting 5 like Rose/Afflalo/Butler/Anthony/Noah happen.
I'd like to get back to using this venue to share my thoughts and opinions about the happenings in the sports world in a more consistent manner, and to do that I think it's best to asses where the major Chicago teams are at right now. Let's start with the teams that are currently playing actual games:
The Chicago White Sox
I am always guilty of being overly optimistic about my favorite team in all of sports. At the beginning of the year I kept trying to remind myself that with the extra wild card team, a weak AL Central division with Detroit's key contributors like Cabrera and Verlander getting older, that the Sox could potentially sneak into the playoffs. I'm happy to report that generally the performance of the southsiders has helped me maintain my optimism: Chris Sale continues to be a leading Cy Young candidate, Jose Abreu has crushed all expectations (along with several poorly located pitches) with his prolific all-fields power stroke, Adam Eaton has been a welcome addition as a catalyst at the top of the order, and Alexei Ramirez and Gordon Beckham have shown significant improvements at the plate so far this year.
Of course Sale, Abreu, and Eaton have already spent time on the DL, the bullpen was awful to start the year, the Erik Johnson experiment did not work, which has led to far too many starts from the likes of Andre Rienzo, Scott Carroll, and Hector Noesi, not to mention that Danks has mixed in a couple of solid starts with some significant implosions. This team will likely hover around .500 all year, which means they won't be too far out of a playoff spot, but it's unrealistic to think they can overcome Det, KC, Cle in their own division, to to mention Anaheim and a number of teams in the AL East competing for Wild Card spots.
The good news is that GM Rick Hahn has shown that he can bring in good young talent in Abreu and Eaton, not to mention Avisail Garcia coming back next year when he gets healthy, new #3 overall draft choice Carlos Rodon, and more prospects in the minors than Sox fans are used to. Lots of holes can be filled through free agency as well when Adam Dunn's massive contract is off the books at the end of this year. There is a lot to be excited about when considering the future of the White Sox, although it's probably best for my own sanity to not get too excited this year.
The Cubbies
The Cubs have a ton of young talent and should be ready to compete in a few years. So what if that last sentence could have been copied and pasted from any number of years when describing the Cubs, this time it's true damnit!
Gratuitous Cubs vibing aside, Wrigleyville should be excited that Rizzo has seemed to figure out left-handed pitching this year (slashing a robust .328/.432/.582 this year against lefties versus .189/.282/.342 last year), and the fact that Kris Bryant's dominance of the high minors might force a call up before the Cubs can avoid his Super 2 status (giving the Cubs an extra year of control over Bryant before he hits arbitration) is a good problem to have, especially since the Cubs shouldn't have to worry about operating like a small market team.
The list of exciting Cubs prospects is endless, but the issue will be if Theo and Jed can cobble together a pitching staff when the time is right. The plan is supposed to be to sign impact free agents (likely pitchers) to pair with the elite prospects when the young'uns are ready to perform on the big stage. This is easier said than done, and the plan is also reliant on the development of young prospects. If I'm a Cubs fan, I'm certainly more in a "show me" state of mind rather than just blindly believing that the Cubs will be WS contenders in 2016.
The Hawks
What a great team. The core of Toews, Kane, Hossa, Keith, and Sharp are locked up, which means this team will be a Stanley Cup contender for a long time, which is very exciting. Every team dreams of having a fairly young core locked up for a while so their window of competing for the Cup stays open for an extended period of time, and the Hawks have exactly that.
Many fans have talked about how the Hawks getting bounced by the LA Kings in Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals was one of their most devastating moments as a sports fan. Sorry, but I don't see it. The Kings were a great hockey team, and it was evident to anyone watching that the Western Conference Finals was the de-facto Stanley Cup Finals. These were clearly the two best teams in the league. So Hawks fans were treated to brilliant hockey on both sides for 7 games, and it's ok to tip your cap to a great team. If this series were played 100 times the Hawks probably would have won it about 45 times. Sure it hurts to be on the losing side, but the bottom line is that the Hawks have won 2 cups in the last 4 years even after losing this one. It reminds me of the clashes between Magic Johnson's Lakers versus Larry Legend's Celtics. Both great teams, but somebody was gonna lose. I think Hawks fans should hold up their heads high and be proud of the fact that their team contributed to some of the greatest Stanley Cup games ever played. And let's get it next year.
Da Bears
It's about time they figured it out. Success in the modern-day NFL is predicated on two important factors:
1) Can your offense throw the ball in key situations?
2) Can your defense disrupt the other team's passing game?
Long gone are the days when teams would run the ball and play tough defense; the rules won't allow for tough defense anymore and it's easier to pick up large chunks of yardage through the air than on the ground. Lovie Smith was a fantastic defensive coach. The Bears had a great defense. It didn't matter. The Bears couldn't keep score with the high-paced offenses that were still able to put up points against the Bears staunch defense, and the defensive-minded team was in a lot of trouble anytime they were playing from a deficit.
Phil Emery has finally put the focus in the right spots, bringing in an offensive minded coach in Mark Trestman, providing Cutler with a lot of playmakers who can catch the ball (Marshall, Jeffery, Forte, Bennett), and pass protection, revamping the offensive line last offseason. This year, Emery revamped their defensive line and drafted a cornerback with their first pick, giving the Bears 3 solid corners. It's clear they're preparing to face teams like Green Bay and Detroit; they want to pressure their elite QBs while trying to lock down on the weapons those types of teams possess. It's the right approach, and I'm confident it will lead to a playoff appearance this year (hopefully this isn't like my Rip Hamilton optimism).
The Chicago Bulls
Even though the NBA season just ended, right now the Bulls are the most interesting they've been since Derrick's knee gave out on him again 10 games into this past season. The decisions the Bulls will be making will probably be discussed in more detail in a future post, but the cliff notes are as follows: GMs Gar Forman and John Paxon have been stressing that they want flexibility with their players and their contracts so that they can have a lot of options on how to construct their team moving forward. All of the flexibility has led to the accumulation of these assets:
-The Bulls have the #16 and #19 picks in a loaded 2014 draft
-Bulls draft pick Nikola Mirotic is dominating play in Europe and could come over to play with the Bulls as a stretch 4 if his buyout and NBA contract are agreed upon (or he could be traded)
-They have a future Kings pick and the ability to swap places with Cleveland's pick down the line
All of these assets are important because both Kevin Love and Carmelo Anthony are available (Love via trade, Carmelo is a FA but could be had in a sign and trade with the Knicks). SG Aaron Afflalo from Orlando is also a potential trade target for the Bulls to pair with DRose in the backcourt. GarPax needs to figure out how they can use these assets to construct the best team possible. Do they think they'll be best served by dealing a lot of assets for Kevin Love, dumping a lot of salary for Carmelo Anthony, or consolidating their 2 1st round picks into a higher pick for a more elite shooter and then bringing over Mirotic. It looks like the Bulls are focused on trying to acquire Carmelo Anthony, but it will be fascinating to see how this team looks next year, especially since they could certainly be the Paper Champions with the best looking roster going into the beginning of next year if they can make a starting 5 like Rose/Afflalo/Butler/Anthony/Noah happen.
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